Land use intensification: differential impacts of forest cover loss, fragmentation and land-ownership subdivision on mammalian meso-carnivores in agricultural landscapes

Human persecution is a worldwide threat to raptors, contributing to the decline of many species. Perceived orHuman persecution is a worldwide threat to raptors, contributing to the decline of many species. Perceived orreal predation of domestic animals is the main driver of persecution and a barrier to the success of conservationinitiatives. Predictive risk models are used to identify hazards in order to target effective prevention actions, andthey have been successfully applied to conflicts with top predators. The Andean temperate region of Chile is aGlobal Biodiversity Hotspot where diurnal raptors co-inhabit with humans in rural areas. Here, complaints fromfarmers on raptor attacks on poultry have steadily increased; however, there is no empirical information aboutthe conflict. This study aims to build a predictive social-ecological risk model to identify husbandry practices andlandscape attributes associated with poultry predation by diurnal raptors in Chile. We applied 100 questionnairesto local farmers about their poultry husbandry practices and raptor predation patterns. We used datafrom questionnaires and landscape attributes to generate risk models of poultry predation. We show that farmersmaintaining an enclosure to keep the chickens, a guard dog and a high proportion of forest in their properties canreduce the risk of raptor predation. These findings can be used to prevent raptor attacks on poultry by facilitatingthe implementation of these management measures in southern Chile. Our results indicate that predictive modelscan help in identifying effective coexistence measures for human-raptor conflicts benefiting human livelihoodsas well as conservation of wild predators.